WP leaders: Robert Gross (Imperial College, London), Mark Winskel (Edinburgh University)
WP participants: Chiara Candelise (Edinburgh University), Philip Greenacre, (Imperial College), SAFC Epichem, Pilkington, other industrial and academic partners.
This work package seeks to assess the potential for the various innovative PV technologies under investigation in other workpackages to deliver cost reductions or performance improvements, in terms of capital cost (£/W) and cost of energy (£/kWh).
Cost reductions in emerging technologies are generally delivered by means of two (linked) processes: 1. fundamental improvements in terms of (for example) materials use, lower cost construction, conversion efficiency improvements. 2. A range of 'learning and scale effects', which include: manufacturing economies of scale, learning by doing in module/cell assembly techniques, learning by using in terms of module installation and operating & maintenance costs.
Often analysts use an empirical technique, 'learning curves' (also known as progress ratios), to assess prospective cost reductions that might be expected to emerge as a result of market growth. Such techniques cannot be used directly for very early stage technologies as
they depend upon empirical data that correlates market growth with cost reductions. However a range of proxies, scenarios and sensitivity analyses may be used to explore potential for cost reduction, and there have also been recent efforts to incorporate 'learning from R&D' into learning rates for early stage technologies.
Alongside assessments using progress ratios, important issues related to prospects for up-scaling, reducing manufacturing costs and developing innovative end-uses need also to be addressed. Here, a set of complementary analytical methods are appropriate, including engineering assessment (which may include a parametric model of PV module production), manufacturing assessment (including interviews with manufacturing systems specialists), and market assessment (analysing the prospects for the development of distinctive markets for thin-film applications). Relevant analogies with established production systems and market growth in other technologies may also be drawn on here.
This workpackage therefore comprises four strands of analysis: learning curve assessment, engineering assessment, manufacturing systems assessment and market assessment. The workpackage proposes to combine these strands together in order to assess the
potential for cost reduction for the different technology platforms of concern in the Consortium and to identify commonalities and disparities in terms of the opportunities, obstacles and actions needed for each platform. Together, these tasks allow for consideration of a broader set of economic and market factors influencing uptake of thin-film modules, alongside the more technical challenges addressed elsewhere in the project.
